Our window of opportunity is here again and not sure how long it will last. Interest rates are reaching under 5% and the time to refinance is now if you haven't done so already.
This is due to a bond rally on weak stocks.
Contact me if you have any questions (310) 963-8315
Rick
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Friday, July 3, 2009
Economic Outlook
There was very little daily movement in mortgage rates during the holiday-shortened week, and they ended the week nearly unchanged. The economic news during the week contained few surprises.
Following better than expected results for May, investors were closely watching the June Employment report for clues about the timing of any economic recovery. Thursday's data showed that the economy lost -467K jobs in June, and the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5% from 9.4% in May. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose at a slim 2.7% annual rate. High unemployment and slow wage growth have caused consumers to save more and spend less. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, the slowdown in spending has had a large impact on economic growth. For mortgage rates, however, low wage inflation and slow economic growth are favorable.
While the Employment report may have captured the most attention, the week began with a significant announcement from Chinese officials. According to the head of China's central bank, there will be no sudden changes to China's foreign reserve policy, meaning that China will not pull back from buying US bonds. Over recent months, investors have been concerned that foreign central banks would decide to scale back their purchases of US bonds, so this was very welcome news. Recent Treasury auctions have confirmed that foreign demand remains strong.
Also Notable:
Following better than expected results for May, investors were closely watching the June Employment report for clues about the timing of any economic recovery. Thursday's data showed that the economy lost -467K jobs in June, and the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5% from 9.4% in May. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose at a slim 2.7% annual rate. High unemployment and slow wage growth have caused consumers to save more and spend less. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, the slowdown in spending has had a large impact on economic growth. For mortgage rates, however, low wage inflation and slow economic growth are favorable.
While the Employment report may have captured the most attention, the week began with a significant announcement from Chinese officials. According to the head of China's central bank, there will be no sudden changes to China's foreign reserve policy, meaning that China will not pull back from buying US bonds. Over recent months, investors have been concerned that foreign central banks would decide to scale back their purchases of US bonds, so this was very welcome news. Recent Treasury auctions have confirmed that foreign demand remains strong.
Also Notable:
- The Unemployment Rate climbed to the highest level since 1983
- April Pending Home Sales rose for the fourth straight month
- The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates unchanged
- HUD announced that the LTV requirement for the Making Home Affordable plan will be raised to 125% from 105%
Week Ahead:
Treasury auctions may have the greatest impact on mortgage rates next week, with auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It will be a light week for economic data. ISM Services will be released on Monday. The Trade Balance, Import Prices, and Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday.
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