Economic Outlook

With major economic data, large Treasury auctions, and a Fed meeting on the schedule, it was a busy week for mortgage markets. In the end, it was the Treasury auctions which had the greatest impact on mortgage rates. Demand was very strong at the auctions, which pushed mortgage rates lower. Wednesday's Fed announcement and mixed economic data were roughly neutral for mortgage rates.

Much of the rise in interest rates we saw in late May and early June was due to concern about the enormous supply of debt the government needs to issue to pay for all the stimulus programs. The question was whether investors would require significantly higher yields to continue purchasing bonds. Strong demand from both domestic and foreign investors at this week's Treasury auctions eased those concerns for now and helped mortgage rates to reverse some of their recent increases.

As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate. However, investor expectations varied widely for the Fed's statement, but the statement revealed no significant shifts in policy. In particular, there was no change in the timing or the quantity of future MBS and Treasury purchases. In addition, the statement contained no discussion about exit strategies to eventually unwind Fed stimulus programs. Overall, the Fed simply held the course, and mortgage rates were nearly unchanged after the news.

In the housing sector, May Existing Home Sales rose 2.4%. It was the first time since September 2005 that Existing Home Sales increased for two months in a row. The inventory of unsold homes declined to a 9.6-month supply from a 10.1-month supply in April. A NAR survey revealed that 29% of sales were to first-time homebuyers, helped by the $8,000 tax credit, low mortgage rates, and favorable affordability levels.

Other interesting facts:

• The May Core PCE inflation index rose at a tame 1.8% annual rate
• The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth this year
• Fed Chief Bernanke performed well during Congressional questioning
• The Fed purchased $22 billion in agency MBS during the week ending 6/24

Next week, the important Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of about 370K jobs in June. Before the Employment data, the Chicago PMI and ISM national manufacturing indexes will come out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, will be released on Wednesday. Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, and Factory Orders will round out the schedule. Mortgage markets will be closed on Friday ahead of the July 4th holiday.